EXAMPLES: PREDICTION

Suppose you were interested in what makes computer programme writers creative in the work place, and you were measuring creativity using an observational scale that added up to a score between 0 and 100. This observed creativity score is then your DEPENDENT VARIABLE. Set aside for the moment that there may be all sorts of problems with really being able to measure creativity in this way…

Say you think that the following variables might predict observed creativity:

• Number of tasks arriving in the worker's intray on the day in question
• Number of off-task interruptions via telephone
• Number of off-task interruptions by people coming to the door
• Availability of a relaxation area
• Whether the worker is working alone or with others
• Level of computer programming knowledge
• How much sleep the worker had the night before

You can probably think of others.

You would then call these your INDEPENDENT VARIABLES, or your PREDICTOR VARIABLES. You believe that observed creativity on a given day will be dependent on - or predictable from - the values of each predictor.

This is an example of REGRESSION ANALYSIS. According to Clark-Carter (1997, p. 341) "regression analysis can be described as a form of modelling, for a mathematical model of relationships between variables is created."

Reference:

Clark-Carter, D. (1997) Doing Quantitative Psychological Research: From Design to Report. Hove, Psychology Press.

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